This briefing by Levin Sources for The Global Investor Commission on Mining 2030 presents a typology of mining-related conflicts and case studies that illustrate how conflicts escalate. It offers investors practical insights into where and how risks may arise and drivers of conflict in different contexts.
Mining can generate significant economic and social benefits, but in contexts marked by weak governance and political instability, it often contributes to conflict. Disputes over land, labour conditions, environmental degradation, and resource governance may escalate into violence — particularly in fragile settings. Having access to those resources can also be a driver of or provide finance for conflict. Yet when managed responsibly, mining can also serve as a stabilising force. Investors and companies have the potential to reduce the likelihood of conflict and play a proactive role in promoting peace.
This briefing supports the Global Investor Commission on Mining 2030 by offering a structured typology of mining-related conflicts and case studies that illustrate how conflicts escalate. The goal is to equip investors with practical insights into where and how risks may arise, giving context to the issues around when to intervene, and how to use their leverage to encourage more responsible and conflict-sensitive practices.
The briefing draws on conflict studies frameworks to show how resource-related tensions typically escalate — from latent grievances to full-scale violence — if left unaddressed. It emphasises that the earlier investors engage, the greater their potential to influence outcomes. When done well, investment in the mining sector can reduce harm, prevent escalation, and contribute to more stable, equitable societies.
Three core elements are key to understanding conflict in mining regions: structural drivers, immediate triggers for escalation, and the characteristics of the conflict itself. Drivers may include historical marginalisation, land tenure insecurity, corruption, or lack of equitable benefit sharing. Triggers — such as resettlement, layoffs, environmental incidents, or elections — can transform latent tensions into violent confrontations. Some triggers are internal to mining operations and within investors’ influence; others are external and shaped by broader political or environmental shocks.
To support investor decision-making, the report characterises conflicts by classifying mining-related conflicts into five interrelated types: socio-environmental, socio-economic, intra-state, transnational, and international armed conflicts. These range from community-level disputes to large-scale conflict driven by geopolitical objectives over strategic minerals. Case studies offer realworld insights into how each type of conflict unfolds.
In practice, conflict types often overlap and evolve. Socio-environmental disputes, for example, may escalate into socio-economic conflicts as environmental harm affects livelihoods, and these in turn can feed into broader political or intra-state tensions. Many of these conflicts remain low intensity for long periods, particularly in the absence of meaningful grievance redress. However, they may escalate quickly when triggered by a catalytic event.
