Conflict is shaping the world at a scale and intensity not seen for decades. In 2024, state-based conflict reached a historic peak, with the highest levels recorded since 1946. Forced displacement has since risen unprecedented levels, while many of the structural conditions that precede major conflicts are now more pronounced than at any point since the Second World War. Rising militarisation, the weakening of traditional alliances, and growing economic uncertainties are creating an increasingly volatile and unpredictable global context. Together, these developments point to a troubling resurgence of both small-scale violence and large-scale warfare, and demand renewed scrutiny of how conflict interacts with our economic systems.
In this context, demand for gold is skyrocketing. Throughout history, periods of instability tend to drive demand for assets that are seen as reliable when political systems and financial markets are under strain. Gold has long played this role. Central banks are currently increasing their gold reserves to reduce exposure to geopolitical risk and currency volatility, while private investors are seeking protection against inflation and market shocks. This has pushed demand and prices up sharply, with gold prices nearly doubling over the past year alone. A significant share of this gold is produced through artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM); historic estimates suggest around 20%, though the true figure today remains uncertain. As demand and prices rise, pressure on gold-producing regions increases accordingly. In fragile and conflict-affected settings, where mining often takes place in conditions of weak oversight, this increases the appeal of gold production and trade to armed and criminal actors. Gold revenues can relatively easily be used to finance violence and illicit activity, reinforcing the very instability that drives demand in the first place. For those working at the intersection of security and peacebuilding, sustainable development, and natural resources, these dynamics raise fundamental questions about the role mineral economies play in either sustaining conflict or enabling stability.
Our research and advisory work over the past 15 years, and especially over the last year, shows that many institutions are seeking a clearer understanding of how rising gold demand affects mining regions on the ground. Governments, civil society organisations, and downstream firms are increasingly concerned that higher demand and prices are intensifying competition for gold, and that armed and criminal actors are moving in to capture value, particularly in ASM areas. These concerns are not unfounded. Across multiple contexts, we see armed and criminal groups becoming more deeply embedded in gold supply chains, reshaping local power structures and exploiting the vulnerabilities of miners and surrounding communities. At the same time, large-scale mining (LSM) companies and investors are becoming more aware that this capture of ASM by armed and criminal actors creates new and complex risks for them. These risks extend beyond physical security or asset protection, shaping how companies are able to engage with host communities and assess who legitimately represents local interests. In environments influenced by armed or criminal actors, even well-intentioned engagement can produce unintended and destabilising outcomes.
A core principle of our work is to move beyond unnuanced narratives that often dominate public discourse. Yet when it comes to understanding the complex links between minerals and conflict, public debate often still swings between oversimplified explanations that offer little insight into what is actually driving and enabling these dynamics, or alarmist narratives that portray ASM gold supply chains as inherently criminal or illegitimate. This framing is inaccurate and counterproductive. It obscures the reality that ASM can, and in many contexts does, support local economies and even stability when it is responsibly governed. It also shifts attention away from the more important question of why ASM becomes vulnerable to capture by armed and criminal actors in the first place. Where ASM is associated with criminal or violent activity, public discussion often fails to distinguish between those who perpetrate such behaviour and those who are subjected to it, most often the miners themselves. This lack of differentiation tends to produce policy responses that punish vulnerability rather than address its root causes.
It is for these reasons that we wrote this paper. This White Paper aims to shift the conversation by offering an evidence-based and more nuanced perspective. Over the past year, much of our work has focused on examining the links between gold production and trade, criminality, and violence in different contexts. This has included analysing how these links are changing as demand increases, which actors play key roles and how, the impacts on ASM operators, communities, and governments, and which policy responses are most likely to have their intended effect. Through this research and advisory work, we have developed a detailed picture of how armed and criminal actors engage with gold supply chains, why ASM is particularly exposed, and what this means for governments, companies, and communities. We believe these insights merit wider attention.
This White Paper is also a service to our clients, partners, and the wider sector. Our experience spans research in fragile and conflict-affected settings, support to LSM companies seeking to better understand and manage risk, and the design of governance and market interventions that strengthen the economic, social, and environmental resilience of ASM. Across this work, a consistent lesson emerges: when miners and communities are able to thrive, the space for armed and criminal capture narrows. This paper distils those learnings and translates them into practical ways forward.
This paper is intended for policymakers, ASM operators and representatives, industrial mining companies, downstream firms, investors, civil society organisations, and others working at the intersection of minerals, conflict, and development. It can inform policy reform, corporate risk management, responsible sourcing strategies, and programme design. Above all, it is an invitation to look more closely at the drivers of ASM’s exposure to capture by criminal and armed actors, the consequences of acting on the wrong assumptions or failing to act at all, and the shared responsibility to ensure that rising demand for gold does not deepen conflict but instead supports more just outcomes.
